Tthe bite of the "millennium bug" computer problem will be worse than expected. Now, the hard numbers are coming in and, if the pattern holds, they point to an even larger bill than many feared just a few months ago. In the third quarter, the Securities & Exchange Commission for the first time urged companies to disclose what it will cost them to head off the bug. The disturbing news: Many now plan to spend, on average, about 26% more than they thought just months ago...AT&T, for example, had said in early 1997 that it might shell out $300 million. Now, it says it could spend $900 million before Jan. 1 2000-some $186 million of that in this year's fourth quarter alone. Chase Manhattan Corp. says it will spend $363 million up 21% from its $300 million second-quarter estimate. And Aetna Inc. is blaming fatter-than-expected Y2K bills-$195 million instead of the $139 million forecasted last summer-for a 6.1% drop in third-quarter profits. Even states are feeling sticker shock: Illinois officials say fixing bugs in the state bureaucracy will cost $114.4 million-up 65% from 1997 estimates. Outspoken Y2K-watcher Edward E. Yardeni, chief economist at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., says the numbers show that some organizations are 'just starting' to wake up to Y2K's potential for damage-but he believes the possible impact is enormous. (II Timothy 3:1)

A recent international Y2K preparedness conference called the International Y2K Cooperation Center was held in New York City. The conclusion was summed up by its director, Bruce McConnell, who was quoted as saying, "I don't think any country will completely meet the deadline. Even in countries that are the most far along in Y2K readiness, there will be some kind of disruption."

Panic among American consumers worried about potential Y2K disasters could create more dangerous social and economic problems than any likely problems resulting from any millennium computer bug problems. The dangers could arise from those who decide to store cash, food, medicine and gasoline. Despite reports that many American businesses and government agencies are telling the public that huge progress has been made in fixing Y2K problems the last six months, the public unease appears to be growing because of inadequate information and skepticism toward official pronouncements that major problems are unlikely. A USC professor studying Y2K issues was quoted as saying, "There's a difficulty in walking the middle ground between 'Be prepared' and 'Don't worry.' I think we run a serious risk of a full-scale social panic between now and the end of the year." (Luke 21:25)

The Pentagon office responsible for safety and security of U.S. nuclear stockpiles and emergency response[s] in a nuclear incident acknowledges falsifying readiness reports on the looming Year 2000 computer problem. The Defense Special Weapons Agency (DSWA) claimed that three of five so-called 'mission critical' computer systems, essential to conducting its most primary duties, were fully prepared to face the computer crisis despite never conducting necessary testing, according to a recent Defense Department Inspector General's Report. The agency also neglected to develop required 'contingency plans' that would take effect if any 'mission critical' systems fail.

The Department of Transportation inspector general Mead told Congress yesterday that there could be trouble on airlines that fly outside the U.S. due to Y2K computer problems even though he said most domestic airlines show readiness in dealing with the problem. He was quoted as saying, "We believe it is time to develop a policy as to whether U.S. carriers or U.S. code-share flights will be allowed to fly to countries that are not known to be Y2K compliant.

The Australian airline Qantas has warned that the millennium bug could lead to its services being disrupted over the New Year period. "Qantas will only fly if it is safe to do so," the airline said in its latest Y2K report to the Australian Stock Exchange. "Therefore, some contingency plans may involve reduced frequency of flights on some domestic and international routes during the contingency period," Qantas said. Services in particular areas might be reduced over the 24-hour period beginning at midnight on 31 December 1999, a Qantas spokesman said.